January ‘24 recap
I didn’t write a 2023 year end recap, but it was a great year. I’m not big on resolutions, so I don’t have any major (unreachable) resolutions for 2024.
The last few months I’ve been learning portuguese, which is something I’ve been wanting to do for a couple of years. I’ll have a follow up in the next couple of months with some proof of what I’ve learned, and what I’ve been doing.
Yesterday I was listening to a Tim Ferris podcast with George McKeown, and George asked a simple question that I really liked: “What is your top goal of 2024?” It’s subtly but importantly different than a resolution. What is your #1 highest priority is for the year? Just one thing.
I thought about this and answered it for different parts of my life: family, personal, and professional.
But there’s one general priority that I feel crosses several of those and I’m ok sharing: keep doing less, and finishing more. I started to really focus on doing less and finishing more the last few months, and want to keep focusing on it. It sounds really simple, but most people do the opposite: they do a lot and finish little.
Day to day it feels good to do a lot. You feel productive… you’re doing a lot! But when you look at what you’ve done that you’re proud of over the last few months, you realize that they haven’t finished much, or at least haven’t finished much that you are proud of.
So what does this look like for me?
blocking time, ideally in the morning, to work on the most important thing. My rule is that the work has to be something of “substance,” vague, I know. For example, an important email doesn’t count, but an important article guide that I can send 100 times in the future over email does count.
building in time to think. I love podcasts, and still listen to a lot of them. But I don’t need to put in my airpods during every 5 minute walk or 10 minute Uber. Less quantity of podcasts and music, and more time for my mind to wander.
regularly prioritizing what is the most important thing, and finishing it before moving onto the next.
I want to run forward at a steady pace, rather than sprint around in circles.
Anyway, the best articles I read, podcasts I listened to, books I read, and stuff I wrote in January:
Articles:
Here’s how the new Bitcoin ETF’s work | WSJ
The SEC approved Bitcoin ETF’s. Here’s what that really means:
In 2021, the SEC allowed for ETFs that held BTC futures, but didn’t allow for holding Spot BTC ETFs (holding actual BTC)
BTC ETFs are trusts that manage pools of BTC and issue shares
All the asset managers that have launched BTC ETFs use a cash model, meaning participants don’t need to directly touch Bitcoin. They put cash in and get cash out, instead of delivering BTC to the trust directly and getting BTC out of the trust when they redeem shares (this would be called an in-kind model).
Most of the new BTC ETFs are using Coinbase as their custodian (the account where the coins are actually stored)
What kind of bubble is AI? | Pluralistic
He says all AI applications must be judged on a 2x2:
- value (how much ppl will pay for it)
- risk tolerance (how perfect the product needs to be)
Argues that the value in AI products isn’t reducing the amount of people, like drivers or radiologists, it’s about replacing them altogether. But, unless these applications are intrinsically risk tolerant, they are poor candidates for automation
Most all risk-tolerant AI applications are low value, while all high value apps are low risk tolerant
“Once the bubble pops (all bubbles pop), AI applications will have to rise or fall on their actual merits, not their promise. The odds are stacked against the long-term survival of high-value, risk-intolerant AI applications.”
“These applications are all riding on the coattails of the big AI models that are being built and operated at a loss in order to be profitable. If they remain unprofitable long enough, the private sector will no longer pay to operate them.”
Invest in lines, not dots | Mark Suster
Mark Suster wrote this evergreen article back in 2010. I agree with the premise: if you have only 1 (or few) interactions with a company, it’s hard to see the trend lines. Those are dots. when you have enough data points to build a line, you can start to see trends and better predict what will happen.
While he wrote specifically about investing in startups, I think it’s also true for hiring and making important decisions in general.
Podcasts:
Andy Galpin on the Tim Ferris Podcast
Andy Galpin is a Phd and “performance coach.” This is a long podcast but if you’re interested in nutrition, sleep, exercise and performance it’s a must listen
Crisis in higher education and why universities still matter | a16z
Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen break down the US universities: its origin, how its developed, and what they consider the 12 functions of the modern university.
In 2015, 57% of people in the US viewed universities positively. In 2023, only 36% of the US viewed universities positively
Books:
Over the Edge of the World, Magellan's Terrifying Circumnavigation of the Globe | Laurence Bergreen
This book reads like fiction but is true.
Magellan is well known to be the first person to circumnavigate the globe… I even did a project in 2nd grade about him. In reality, Magellan died on the voyage, as did 90% of the 250 men who sailed from east from Spain and arrived back to Spain from the West.
Luckily, one of the survivors, Antonio Pigafetta, kept a complete, and fairly objective account of the entire voyage, which gave way to this book.
